China Military Threat Report: Beijing Nuclear Build-Up Outpacing US Expectations

President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday in California. Talks will include trade, Taiwan, and managing fraught U.S.-Chinese relations.

The announcement comes as a new Pentagon report reveals a disturbing development in the People's Republic of China's (PRC) military power. Aside from expanding land, air, and sea capabilities, Beijing's nuclear arsenal is rapidly growing. 

According to U.S. intelligence, China has more than 500 nuclear warheads as of last May. That amounts to 100 more than last year, putting Beijing on pace to field more than 1,000 by 2030, a rapid expansion, that has the U.S. taking note.

"They're becoming a great power and they don't want to be check-mated by our nuclear forces, and they want to, therefore, be in our league," said Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, Michael O'Hanlon. 

He said China still has a ways to go before its stockpile rivals that of the U.S. or Russia. He adds that while the build-up isn't a surprise, he does find the budding partnership between Beijing and Moscow concerning.  

"We always had a framework and we assumed that it was okay for Russia and the United States to each have equal numbers of different types of weapons. And now you have a problem, because if China comes into the equation, and China and Russia are strategic partners, and we let each of the three have the same number of weapons, now it could sort of feel like a two-to-one. The United States getting, you know, outmuscled or outgunned," O'Hanlon told CBN News.

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He believes China's military rise will likely require new arms treaties or at least greater transparency.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon's report also shows a sharp increase in risky behavior by the PRC in the air.

"In the last two years we've had as many incidents with the Chinese in the South China Sea and environment, as in the previous decade," O'Hanlon said. 

Between the Fall of 2021 and Fall of 2023, the DOD documented more than 180 instances of dangerous air intercepts against U.S. aircraft. One of the most recent, happened at the end of October, when a Chinese fighter jet flew recklessly close to a U.S. bomber. 

"The bottom line is that in many cases this type of operational behavior can cause accidents and dangerous accidents can lead to inadvertent conflict," said Dr. Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs during a Pentagon press briefing. 

This news comes as President Biden prepares to meet with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in California. The two are expected to announce the resumption of military communication channels, a move seen as an attempt to stabilize the relationship between the world's two largest powers, and lower the risk of a military misunderstanding.